The Internet Measurement Conference brings us an attempt to figure out just how X.509 server certificates are being used
in the wild, specifically for HTTPS servers. Yet more specifically, they are looking for endemic operational problems that harm security. The basic idea is to scan the entire IPv4 number space for servers responding on port 443, make note of the certificate(s) presented, and then analyze them.
This research question is nothing new; the EFF famously ran a similar study back in 2010, the SSL Observatory. And operational concerns about the way certificates are used in the wild go back decades; see Peter Gutmann’s slide deck
What do we learn? Mostly that yeah, the TLS PKI is a big mess, and it hasn’t gotten any better since 2010. There are too many root CAs. There are far too many unconstrained intermediate certificates, and yet, at the same time, there are too few intermediates! (The point of intermediates is that they’re easy to replace, so if they get compromised you don’t have a catastrophe on your hands. Well, according to this paper, some 26% of all currently valid HTTPS server certificates are signed by one intermediate. No way is that going to be easy to replace if it gets compromised.) Lots of CAs ignore the
baseline policies for certificate issuance and get away with it. (Unfortunately, the paper doesn’t say whether there are similar problems with the EV policies.)
Zoom out: when you have a piece of critical infrastructure with chronic operational issues, it’s a safe bet that they’re symptoms and the real problem is with operator incentives. The paper doesn’t discuss this at all, unfortunately, so I’ll throw in some speculation here. The browser vendors are notionally in the best position to Do Something about this mess, but they don’t: because the only real option they have is to delete root certificates from the Official List. Not only does this tend to put the offending CA out of business, it also causes some uncertain-but-large number of websites (most or all of which didn’t do anything wrong) to stop working. Such a drastic sanction is almost never seen to be appropriate. Browsers have hardly any good positive incentives to offer the CAs to do things right; note that EV certificates, which get special treatment in the browser UI and can therefore be sold at a premium, do come with a tighter set of CA requirements (stronger crypto, reliable OCSP, that sort of thing) which are, as far as I’m aware, followed.
Zoom out again: there’s no shortage of technical suggestions that could turn into less drastic sanctions and incentives for the CAs, but they never get implemented: why? Well, you ask me, I say it’s because both OpenSSL and NSS are such terrible code that nobody wants to hack on them, and the brave souls who do it anyway are busy chipping away at the mountain of technical debt and/or at features that are even more overdue. This, though, we know how to fix. It only takes money.